On the same day, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, while visiting Kyiv, demanded that Zelensky immediately sign an extortionate agreement, making continued American aid conditional on the United States gaining the right to exploit Ukraine’s strategic minerals up to a value of $500 billion. Indeed, beyond oil and gas, Ukraine’s subsoil is rich in lithium, uranium, titanium, and graphite—resources that remain largely untapped due to the war and the country’s lack of industrial capacity. For Trump, this was merely a “repayment” of American aid. But U.S. assistance amounts to at most $185 billion, including $65 billion in military aid, which in reality consists of federal subsidies granted to U.S. arms corporations to supply Ukraine. Having refused to sign, Zelensky was warned by Trump:
A dictator without an election, Zelensky should hurry, or there won’t be a country left for him… Think about it: a modestly successful comedian, Volodymyr Zelensky, convinced the United States of America to spend $350 billion to engage in a war that could not be won, that should never have started, but a war that he, without the United States and “TRUMP,” will never be able to resolve. (Trump, Truth Social, February 19)
Without American aid, Ukraine—already struggling against the Russian army—has no possibility of holding out for much longer. The supply of military equipment and ammunition from various European states cannot compensate for this, at least not in the short term.
After three years of fierce battles, time is now running out for an already weakened Ukraine. On one side, Russian imperialism is increasing its military pressure on the front lines and across the country with drones and missiles. On the other, the jaws of American imperialism are closing in on its wealth. On February 20, the U.S. special envoy to Ukraine warned Zelensky that access to the Starlink satellite network—set up by Elon Musk and essential for military communications—could be cut off if the agreement on mineral exploitation was not signed. By February 21, Zelensky had already conceded that American and Ukrainian teams were working together on a deal. Trump stated that he expected an agreement to be signed “within a relatively short period.”
On February 18, the Russian and American Foreign Ministers met in Riyadh and agreed to establish a consultation mechanism and appoint negotiators to define the conditions for peace in Ukraine. The Ukrainian government was not invited to these talks, nor were the European governments.
The process now underway goes beyond the question of Ukraine itself. By negotiating an end to the war at the expense of the Ukrainian people—but, above all, by breaking its close alliance with the other imperialist powers in Europe—the American ruling class seeks to carve out a new path in international relations. After having forced European countries to implement sanctions against Russia, which severely impacted EU economies, the new U.S. administration now declares that a secret agreement with Putin is nearly finalized. And, in a message directed at the European governments, it makes clear that the U.S. will leave most of the military expenditures required to uphold the current imperialist order to European budgets. Just as Canada and Mexico were forced to pay for the militarization of their shared borders with the United States, Trump is now lifting the dollar-soaked veil that previously covered U.S. relations with its “allies”:
Vassals are not asked for their opinion on important matters. They are only asked to pay for the master’s protection.
The sanctions against Russia will soon be over—making way for lucrative trade agreements! While Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov boasted in Riyadh that he had sensed “a strong interest in removing artificial obstacles to the development of mutually beneficial economic cooperation,” his American counterpart Rubio reinforced the message: “There are extraordinary opportunities for partnership.”
The strength of U.S. imperialism—economic, military, and technological—is incomparably greater than that of Russian imperialism. Russia’s GDP, estimated at $2.05 trillion in 2024, is barely one-fifteenth of that of the United States, which stands at $29.167 trillion. But what Trump is pursuing on behalf of American imperialism is not merely the plundering of Ukraine’s rare earth metals and other resources (which the EU also coveted), nor simply securing business deals with Russian capitalists. His broader objective is to weaken the European Union and break the alliance that Russian imperialism was forced to forge with Chinese imperialism in order to resist the pressures exerted by U.S. and European imperialism after launching the war in Ukraine.
The benefits for the Russian state are clear. The agreement as it is taking shape would allow Russia to emerge as the victor of the war it initiated. Even if it has not conquered all of Ukraine, it would consolidate its territorial gains—amounting to approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory—temporarily neutralize the NATO threat, ease the grip of international sanctions strangling its economy, increase pressure on neighboring countries, and deepen divisions within the European Union.
The European imperialist governments (including the British) have been thrown into disarray by this abrupt reversal from U.S. imperialism. In an emergency meeting on February 17, Macron gathered the heads of government from Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands, and Denmark, along with the President of the European Council, the President of the European Commission, and the NATO Secretary General. He then convened additional European states on February 19 in an attempt to establish a common position and force their way to the negotiating table. While France and Britain initially considered sending troops to Ukraine under the pretext of enforcing the ceasefire, Britain backtracked the very next day, stating that such an operation could not take place without U.S. military guarantees. Moreover, Russia had already ruled out the presence of European armies in Ukraine.
Macron traveled to Washington on February 24 but secured no guarantees or concessions from Trump. Worse still, at the very same moment, the United States presented a motion at the United Nations absolving Russia of any aggression against Ukraine and had the same position ratified in the Security Council by voting alongside Russia and China—while European representatives did not even dare to vote against it. However, European states are not willing to simply foot the bill and abandon their share of the spoils. That same day, February 24, “the European Commissioner for Industrial Strategy, Stéphane Séjourné, announced that he had presented a competing proposal on ‘critical materials’ in Kyiv during a visit by the European Commission.”
The U.S. imperialist abandonment of Ukraine is accompanied by increased pressure on European governments to raise their military spending to 5% of their GDP—naturally, by purchasing American weaponry—while simultaneously announcing the withdrawal of 20,000 troops from the 100,000 U.S. soldiers currently stationed in Europe.
“We believe that within a common alliance framework, Europeans must strengthen their defenses while America focuses on regions of the world that are in great danger.” (Vance, Munich Conference, February 21)
France and Germany have already announced plans to accelerate their military buildup, but the construction of a “European defense” remains an empty promise, continually blocked by the conflicting interests of the various European bourgeoisies. The increasingly reactionary, nationalist, and in some cases outright fascist tendencies within segments of the European bourgeoisie will continue to fuel militarism.
If the U.S.-Russian agreement materializes, it will mark a defeat for the Ukrainian proletariat—after more than three years of war under the leadership of Zelensky’s bourgeois government—while simultaneously tightening Putin’s dictatorial grip on the Russian working class.
After claiming control over the Panama Canal, proposing the annexation of Greenland, and advocating for the incorporation of Canada, Trump is now steering events to force Ukraine into capitulation—primarily for his own benefit and that of Russian imperialism. U.S. imperialism is moving ahead unilaterally, disregarding all previous agreements, alliances, treaties, and international bodies. Its sole objective is to restore its full power—now eroded, challenged, and weakened by competing imperialist forces, foremost among them Chinese imperialism. “Make America Great Again”, with all the brutality it entails, means a drastic escalation of inter-imperialist conflicts and annexations by military force.
The American state’s abrupt shift proves that—contrary to the claims of those who have shamefully defended Russian imperialism—the invasion of what was once a colony of the Tsarist Empire was never simply a conflict between U.S. and Russian imperialism. If it had been, the United States would have crushed Russia. However, the redivision of the world is inevitable and carries the real threat of humanity’s annihilation, given the proliferation and scale of nuclear arsenals.
It is the duty of every workers’ organization—whether party or trade union—to take a clear stance: against the invasion and occupation, for the withdrawal of Russian imperialist troops from all Ukrainian territory, and for ensuring that weapons and ammunition reach Ukrainian soldiers. This would enable the proletariat to fight not only against Russia’s imperialist aggression but also against Zelensky, who relies on the fascists of the Azov Battalion and Western imperialist vultures, who persecutes Russian speakers, privatizes industries, bans workers’ organizations, and suppresses strikes. Achieving peace and freedom for the peoples of Ukraine requires mass mobilization of the exploited to overturn Zelensky’s anti-worker measures, restore democratic rights (including within the army), and place both the war effort and negotiations under the control of workers’ and peasants’ organizations.
In Russia, such a campaign would support the working class in sabotaging the colonial war and weakening the Russian bourgeois state.
Before it is too late, the workers’ movement in all countries—above all in Russia, the United States, and Europe—must take a stand for the rights of all oppressed peoples (Palestinians, Kurds, Ukrainians…), against the militarism of the imperialist states, against territorial annexations by all great powers, and for the dismantling of professional armies that serve the exploiters.
This rotten system can be overthrown. Across borders, the vanguard of the working class must unite in a revolutionary workers’ international. In every state, this international will help build a Bolshevik-type party to expropriate big capital, dismantle the bourgeois state, establish workers’ governments based on councils, and advance toward a world socialist federation. The best elements of the global workers’ movement and struggles of the oppressed must urgently come together for this purpose—on the foundation of scientific socialism as developed by Marx and Engels, the program of the Communist International under Lenin, and the Fourth International under Trotsky.